Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to seek a snap election rather than resign if he loses a looming no-confidence motion.

Rockliff faced an ongoing no-confidence debate in parliament on Thursday morning, which resumed after a marathon debate throughout Wednesday.

The motion, put forward by Labor opposition leader Dean Winter, appears all but certain to pass, with the Greens and three crossbench MPs voicing their support.

Rockliff has conceded the numbers are against him but has vowed to “fight to his last breath” and not resign.

“If Mr Winter’s divisive and destructive motion is passed, I will be going to the lieutenant-governor and seeking an election,” he said ahead of Thursday’s debate.

“This will be advice I will provide to the governor that an election is needed, unless Mr Winter forms government with the Greens.”

Rockliff said Tasmania did not want and could not afford an election.

“Be that on Mr Winter’s head. This has been a selfish grab for power. I have a lot more fight in me,” he said.

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“The only job Mr Winter is interested in is mine. And I am not going anywhere.”

Tasmania went to the polls just 15 months ago – an election in which the Liberals were returned to power in minority with just 14 of 35 seats in the lower house.

If an election is called, it would be the state’s fourth in seven years.

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Winter hit back in a statement on Thursday, saying the “only person forcing Tasmania to an early election is Jeremy Rockliff”.

“The Premier is calling his second early election in 16 months,” he said.

“The deals he struck with the cross bench have collapsed after he announced plans to sell Tasmanian assets, stuffed the Spirits and broke the budget.

“He has lost the support of Tasmanians too.

“At the last election, he promised stability. He’s delivered anything but.

“I reaffirm Labor’s commitment that we will not do a deal with or form government with the Greens.”

Labor on Tuesday threatened to pull the trigger on a no-confidence motion if it could find support from the Greens and enough crossbench MPs.

Labor has lashed Rockliff for budget “mismanagement” and delays and cost blowouts to the delivery of two new Bass Strait ferries.

Some crossbenchers and the Greens also have gripes with the proposed $945 million Hobart stadium, a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL in 2028.

Labor supports the team and a stadium, a position it reiterated on Wednesday.

The Devils fear an early election would delay the stadium project and put the club’s licence at risk. The franchise’s general manager, Kath McCann, broke down as she discussed the effect of the continued uncertainty on Wednesday.

Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff has kept the door ajar for a minority government scenario with Labor, which has just 10 lower-house seats.

Woodruff said her party was prepared to work with Labor, saying Winter could prevent Tasmania from going to an election by forming a new government.

Independent Kristie Johnston, one of the three crossbenchers to support the motion, hasn’t ruled out working with Labor.

How Tasmania got to this point

• ELECTORAL REFORM On taking office in 2022, one of Mr Rockliff’s first acts as premier was to back the return of a 35-seat House of Assembly, up from 25, to reduce the workload on ministers and MPs. Given Tasmania’s Senate-like lower house, this made it easier for independents and Greens to win seats, producing a hung parliament at the 2024 election.

• MINORITY MAYHEM Rockliff’s Liberals suffered a 12 per cent swing against them at the 2024 poll but remained parliament’s biggest party, with 14 MPs to Labor’s 10 and the Greens’ five. To govern, Mr Rockliff signed deals with five crossbenchers, including various promises he has struggled to fulfil, straining relationships.

• SPIRITS SAGA The biggest turbulence for the Rockliff government has been its botched replacement of Spirit of Tasmania ferries, the critical sea link to the mainland. Two Finland-built ships were due in 2024, but the new berth needed to house them in Devonport won’t be ready until 2026, with costs blowing out from $90m to $495m. Michael Ferguson took the fall, resigning as infrastructure minister in August last year, and then, as a no confidence motion loomed, as Treasurer in October.

• AFL ASPIRATION An Australian Rules state to its boots, Tasmania has always coveted a place in the AFL and got it in 2022, when a bid championed by former premier Peter Gutwein was realised by Mr Rockliff. However, the deal came with strings attached. The AFL will pay the least, but demands a roofed stadium close to the inner-city. The federal government does not pay as much as the state government, which is also on the hook for cost overruns that already run into the hundreds of millions.

• STADIUM STRUGGLES As is often the case in Tasmania, the huge stadium project draws opposition. Some say it’s in the wrong spot, including Hobart City Council and the RSL, given the proximity to heritage and a nearby war memorial. Economists attack dubious return-on-investment projections. Engineers doubt the feasibility of the Macquarie Point site, and those outside of Hobart feel it’s an over-the-top investment, especially given the state’s health and housing woes.

• BUDGET BLOWOUT  The final straw – at least to Labor – was new Treasurer’s Guy Barnett first budget, unveiled last month. The Liberals, long the party of fiscal responsibility, instead unveiled deficits as far as the eye could see and ballooning debt to $10b; a huge amount for a state of 550,000 people. The blowout drew huge criticism both inside and outside parliament.

• LABOR EMBOLDENED  The Labor opposition has suffered four election defeats in a row, the last three under Rebecca White, but has enjoyed a poll uptick under their new leader. He clearly sees a government on the ropes and enough of the crossbench agree. Labor want to move now given the huge support Tasmanians offered to candidates in the federal election, with four of the five seats now in Labor hands. They sense a moment.