The worst may be behind everyone except Philip Lowe, says investment manager
Philip Lowe’s time as the Governor of the Reserve Bank was likely over, according to QIC.
In its weekly bulletin, the State Governmentās investment manager said the self-inflicted damage to Loweās credibility and public image meant that he was unlikely to have his term renewed and the Federal Government had given little indication that it supported Lowe.
His contract ends in September.
Lowe was considered damaged goods because of his claims early in the pandemic that interest rates would not increase until 2024, a statement that may have led to people making investment decisions that ultimately came unstuck after 12 interest rates hikes.
āThe Prime Minister recently referred to the RBAās faulty guidance when asked about the Budget assumptions being wrong, suggesting that it is top of mind for the Government,ā QIC said.
The āeconomistās viewā bulletin also said it was likely that the worst phase for households in the current economy was āprobably behind usā.
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āAlthough many households on fixed rate mortgages will convert to variable rates in the September quarter and variable rates will be rising as the RBA raises the cash rate, real disposable income will be supported by a lift in wages, a slowing in the rate of inflation and support from Government subsidies,ā it said.
āHowever, the recovery in real disposables incomes will proceed at glacial pace and it will be until 2025 that real disposable incomes will retrace to the level it enjoyed at the second half of 2021.
āHence, the RBA can end its current tightening cycle in the September quarter without feat of prompting a sharp rebound in consumer spending and can begin their easing cycle in the March quarter of 2024.ā
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