BoM alert, not alarmed as La Nina thinks about a Spring encore
The Bureau of Meteorology has switched to a La Nina alert as the likelihood of the weather pattern returning this year increased by around three times the normal risk.
It follows a warning from Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk for Queenslanders to prepare for the return of potential heavy rain and flooding. This time around, if the La Nina occurs, it would also be combining with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, a weather pattern that brings rain from the west to the eastern seabord, but mostly the southern states.
āThe bureauās three-month outlook shows a high chance of above average rainfall for most of the eastern two-thirds of the Australian mainland between September and November 2022,ā BoM said.
āThe outlook reflects a range of drivers including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and warmer than average waters around Australia.ā
Other weather forecasters have not been as conservative as BoM and have already called a La Nina.
āThis reporting does not reflect the complexity of Australiaās climate and is not entirely accurate,ā BoM said.
The latest alert status from BoM meant there was a 70 per cent chance of La Ninaās return.
āWith wet soils, high rivers and full dams, and the outlook for above average rainfall, elevated flood risk remains for eastern Australia,ā it said.
āThis rainfall outlook is of great importance to communities in eastern Australia given the increased risk of flood following above average rainfall for the past few months and above average soil moisture levels.ā
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